Multi-source analysis by Agnite AI Β· March 2026
Built as a research demo β not betting advice.
π Live market data: Polymarket Β· $24.5M volume π¬ Join the discussion on LinkedIn
Agnite analyzed the 2026 NCAA Final Four by pulling live data from multiple sources β season stats, advanced metrics, sportsbook lines, and prediction market odds β then built a probability model from scratch. Here's what it found.
| Team | Agnite Model | Polymarket | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 31.6% | 35.0% | -3.4% |
| Illinois | 26.7% | 18.1% | +8.6% β |
| Arizona | 24.9% | 32.9% | -8.0% |
| UConn | 16.7% | 13.9% | +2.8% |
The headline finding: The model's biggest divergence from the prediction market is Illinois β priced at 18.1% on Polymarket but valued at 26.7% by the model, driven by their #2 national offensive efficiency, a defensive transformation during March Madness, and the tallest roster in the country.
Scroll down for the full analysis β semifinal breakdowns, advanced metrics, team profiles, and methodology.
From a single prompt, Agnite autonomously executed a multi-step research workflow:
The Agnite model price vs. two major market benchmarks. The β Illinois edge is the largest divergence.
| Team | Record | Agnite Model | Polymarket | FanDuel (fair) | Edge vs. Poly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 35-3 | 31.6% | 35.0% | 36.1% (+155) | -3.4% |
| Illinois β | 28-8 | 26.7% | 18.1% | 18.4% (+400) | +8.6% β |
| Arizona | 36-2 | 24.9% | 32.9% | 34.1% (+170) | -8.0% |
| UConn | 33-5 | 16.7% | 13.9% | 11.5% (+700) | +2.8% |
How likely is each possible title game? The semifinal brackets set up a potential all-Big Ten championship.
| Matchup | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michigan vs Illinois | 31.4% |
| Arizona vs Illinois | 25.7% |
| Michigan vs UConn | 23.7% |
| Arizona vs UConn | 19.4% |
Most likely final: Michigan vs Illinois β a 31.4% chance of an all-Big Ten title game.
Head-to-head statistical profiles from KenPom, Synergy Sports, and tournament data. Green bold = best among the four teams.
| Metric | Michigan | Arizona | Illinois | UConn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KenPom Net Efficiency | +39.02 (#1) | +38.76 (#2) | β | β |
| Adj. Offensive Efficiency | #5 | #4 | #2 (131.2) | #28 |
| Adj. Defensive Efficiency | #1 | #2 | #20 (reg season) | #9 |
| Tempo (Poss/40 min) | #22 (fastest) | #56 | #296 | #319 (slowest) |
| Turnover % | #154 | #62 | #10 (best) | #174 |
| Offensive Rebound % | #48 | #4 | #3 | #26 |
| Free Throw % | 74.2% | 73.5% | 78.0% (#14) | 71.9% (#206) |
| Offensive 2PT % | 61.3% (#2) | 55.2% | ~57% | ~57% |
| Defensive 2PT % | ~#2 | #1 | β | ~#3 |
| 3PT Shooting % | 36.9% (#30) | 36.7% | <35% | <35% |
| 3PT Defense % | 30.4% (#16) | ~30.7% | ~31.1% | ~31% |
| Tourney PPP Allowed | β | β | 0.976 (best) | β |
| Tourney FG% | 55.9% | β | β | β |
| Avg Tourney Margin | ~25 pts | β | β | β |
| Synergy Halfcourt Offense | 96th pctl | β | 97th pctl | β |
| Synergy Transition Offense | β | 94th pctl | 97th pctl | β |
| Experience | 2nd | 4th (youngest) | 3rd | 1st (most exp.) |
P(title) = P(win semi) Γ Ξ£[ P(opponent wins other semi) Γ P(beat opponent in final) ]
The model's biggest divergence from the market: Illinois is priced at 18.1% on Polymarket but the model assigns 26.7% β a gap driven by their elite offense (#2 nationally), a defensive transformation in March Madness, and the tallest roster in the country.